"There are trivial truths and great truths.
The opposite of a trivial truth is plainly false.
The opposite of a great truth is also true."
This echoed a truth from my childhood that i've never succeeded in phrasing so well. Often, the opposite of what you'd expect is an equally likely outcome. This may sound a little different but it points out a good starting place to test any statement or idea. If the opposite also seems sound than perhaps there is some truth there. If, reversed, the idea falls apart then you probably need to inquire more deeply into the matter.
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